Property Guardian, a leader in wildfire risk intelligence for the insurance industry, today launched Wildfire Susceptibility Scores, giving insurance carriers and managing general agents (MGAs) something traditional wildfire scores don’t: a view of not just which properties face the greatest wildfire hazard, but when the next wildfire event is likely to occur.
Most wildfire hazard scores give a location a single rating that rarely changes. But wildfire risk doesn’t stay fixed. After a wildfire, vegetation grows back, and how quickly an area becomes ready to burn again depends on what’s growing there. Chaparral can recover in a couple of years, while conifer forest can take much longer. Property Guardian’s patent-pending model draws on more than 800 fuel classes to track these regrowth cycles and pinpoint when the fuels at a property, and across the surrounding area, are ready to burn again.
Static scores treat recently burned land as safer. Property Guardian treats it as the start of a countdown.
“Every wildfire model is judged on how well it finds high-hazard areas, and that accuracy matters,” said Brian Bastian, Head of Product at Property Guardian. “But two properties with the same hazard can sit at very different points in the wildfire cycle. Wildfire Susceptibility Scores give underwriters a differentiated view of when risk is likely to return, so they can be selective where it’s due and lean in where it isn’t. That’s how you write more premium in wildfire-exposed regions without taking on risk you don’t understand.”
Four Scores, Four Questions Answered
- Hazard Risk: How wildfire-prone is this location overall?
- Recurrence Risk: How likely are these fuels to burn this year?
- Local Wildfire Landscape: Is the surrounding neighborhood a wildfire zone?
- Proximity to Fuels: How close is this location to high-risk wildlands?
Together, Hazard Risk (where) and Recurrence Risk (when) separate high-hazard locations where wildfire is likely now from those where a recent large wildfire has cut the odds roughly in half for the next two years.
Proven on Wildfires It Had Never Seen
Property Guardian froze the scores before the 2025 wildfire season, then measured them against what actually burned. The results show what underwriters can count on:
- Find the risk without overreacting to it. Nearly all of the land that burned in 2025 (92%) had been rated High or Very High Hazard Risk, and those ratings covered just 38% of the country. Underwriters can focus scrutiny where it matters instead of treating entire regions as off-limits.
- Know when to lean in and when to hold back. On previously burned land, properties rated Very High Recurrence Risk burned 21 to 29 times as often as those rated Very Low, in every backtest from 2010 to 2025. That timing view is what lets underwriters compete for high-hazard business that isn’t due to burn.
- Outperform the market standard. Where properties are concentrated, including the wildland-urban interface, Hazard Risk outperformed a leading commercial wildfire score.
- Rely on it year after year. Accuracy held 1 to 15 years ahead, so the scores support renewal and portfolio decisions, not just new business.
Full methods and results are available in Property Guardian’s validation white paper.
Built for Transactional Underwriting, Kept Current for an Edge
Wildfire Susceptibility Scores are built for the speed and scale of transactional underwriting. They return instant property-level reads for risk triage at submission and for aggregation management across an entire book. They cover all 50 states, including the Hawaii and Alaska landscapes most wildfire models leave out, and draw on more than 800 fuel classes and 125 years of wildfire history. Every score traces back to its fuels, wildfire history and wildfire cycle, so underwriters can explain a rating, not just report it.
The scores refresh every two weeks. Each refresh adds newly burned areas, which resets the clock in the frequency model and updates Recurrence Risk. Underwriters get a current view of which high-hazard areas are far from due for a wildfire event, so they can act on that opportunity before the market catches up.
Susceptibility Scores Answer Where and When, Resiliency Answers What Happens If a Wildfire Arrives
Susceptibility Scores don’t estimate loss severity, assess structure survivability or credit on-parcel mitigation. For accounts that warrant a closer look, Property Guardian’s Wildfire Resiliency Score and Wildfire Risk Insight Reports add the property-level view of how a structure is likely to hold up and what can be done to improve it.
Available Now: Try It on Your Book
Wildfire Susceptibility Scores are available through Property Guardian Direct and the Susceptibility Scores API, as a standalone triage screen or an augment to existing data. Unlimited-use licensing is based on quote or submission volume, and qualified carriers and MGAs can request no-cost sample scoring on a slice of their portfolio.
To see the validation results or request a sample-portfolio evaluation, visit www.propertyguardian.com/products/wildfire-susceptibility-scores.
About Property Guardian
Property Guardian delivers advanced wildfire analytics that help carriers, MGAs, and insurance professionals select, price, mitigate, and monitor risk in wildfire-exposed markets. By combining cutting-edge science with expert-backed wildfire intelligence, Property Guardian transforms thousands of wildfire signals into clear, actionable insights at the property level. Its intelligence supports smarter underwriting, stronger portfolio management, proactive loss control, and profitable growth across the insurance lifecycle.
Learn more at www.propertyguardian.com.
Media Contact:
Joshua Clifton
Head of Marketing & Communications
Property Guardian
joshua.clifton@propertyguardian.com
773-230-1304
