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A ferocious wildfire spreads through a dense forest, engulfing trees and ground in bright orange flames, with smoke rising into the air and sunlight filtering through the trees.

U.S. Wildfire Outlook: October 12 to October 25, 2026

Nine million acres. The 2026 fire year crossed that line in early October, and NIFC’s Sunday situation report puts the running total at 9,016,136 acres from 63,884 fires, 145% and 133% of the 10-year average for this date. Mid-October usually means the national story is winding down, and in one sense it is: National Preparedness Level 2 holds for a third straight week and initial attack is light. What changes over the next two weeks is where the remaining risk sits.

Property Guardian two-week US wildfire outlook dashboard for October 12–25, 2026, displaying wildfire statistics and regional risk levels ranging from below normal to above normal.
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Same Preparedness Level, a different map

By our read, the count of states at above-normal risk holds at 10, but the membership turns over.

The southern Plains move back up a tier after two weeks at elevated: the October 8 Drought Monitor shows drought worsening again across parts of Texas and Oklahoma despite late-September tropical rain, and NIFC’s October outlook keeps north Texas and western Oklahoma above normal, along with east Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The Great Basin also climbs to above normal. Predictive Services expects the Sierra Front and adjacent Lahontan Basin to run above normal in October, noting that far western Nevada has gone without wetting rain since mid-August and that Energy Release Component values there are approaching the 80th percentile.

Going the other way, the Northern Rockies step down to below normal. A weekend winter storm brought snow to Montana, and NIFC notes that a wet September kept many grasses green across the region. Northern California stays above normal and the Pacific Northwest holds at elevated, while the Southwest remains quiet.

A cool interruption, then the ridge again

Through October 18. The week opens with the West in a trough. NIFC Predictive Services has highs running 10 to 20 degrees below normal west of the Rockies, with widespread moisture across the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. Northern California is the exception: NWS Sacramento kept a Red Flag Warning on Shasta County, the northern Sacramento Valley, and central Glenn County into early Monday, with north to northeast winds gusting 30 to 40 mph and humidity of 15 to 25%. Remnants of Hurricane Rachel bring moderate to heavy rain to southern California, Arizona, and southern Nevada, with gusts to 50 mph, and breezy north to northeast winds gust to 35 mph across the Columbia Basin and much of Oregon. In the South, dry and warm air follows Hurricane Isaias, and Arkansas opens the week with elevated fire danger and gusts near 30 mph ahead of a cold front due Friday.

October 19 to 25. The cool break does not last. CPC’s 6-10 day outlook (October 16 to 20) favors above-normal temperatures across the West, topping 60% for much of California and adjacent Nevada and Arizona, with below-normal precipitation favored from Oregon and northern California through Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. The 8-14 day outlook (October 18 to 24) keeps the ridge in place and gives northern California and western Nevada 40 to 50% odds of a drier-than-normal stretch. The Desert Southwest, Lower Rio Grande Valley, and Gulf Coast lean wetter. CPC rates confidence in both periods at 4 out of 5.

Sixth fire in the Reno hills

The Bull Fire is not large, which is the point. Reported around 10:45 a.m. on October 2 in the hills north of Verdi, just west of Reno, the human-caused fire ran to 1,529 acres within hours. Evacuation orders went out for forested areas around the fire and nearby neighborhoods were told to get set, while smoke prompted an air quality advisory for Reno-Sparks. Local reporting counted it as the sixth ignition in the Reno hills in two months.

Crews held it inside that first-day footprint with help from the burn scar of August’s Hawk Fire, which served as a natural containment line. NIFC now lists the fire at 96% contained with one structure lost and containment expected by October 15. The lesson for the coming weeks sits in the forecast: this is the same Sierra Front fuel bed that Predictive Services flags as above normal, and the ridge returning after October 16 favors the warm, dry conditions that let a midday start reach a neighborhood edge before aircraft arrive.

Regional risk outlook
A table showing wildfire risk by region, with columns for Region, Status, and Conditions, using red for above normal risk, yellow for elevated risk, and green for below normal risk.
Still burning

Most of the season’s big fires, including Little Giant, Grasshopper, and Timber, are now 95% or more contained and in mop-up. Three large fires still have meaningful open line:

  • Dome (CA) — 6,805 acres, 69% contained. North of Wawona in Yosemite, revised down slightly with better mapping; trails in the footprint stay closed, with containment targeted for October 17.
  • Sisi (WA) — 4,439 acres, 34% contained. Northwest of Stehekin and the least-contained large fire in the country, still backing and flanking with residences threatened.
  • Pk (WY) — 1,645 acres, 80% contained. A new large fire ten miles west of Sheridan in brush, grass, and timber.
The slow variables

Drought now covers about 55% of the Lower 48, down from roughly 59% two weeks ago, after NOAA ranked September as the warmest on record for the contiguous US. El Niño keeps strengthening, and CPC gives it a 75% chance of exceeding every event on record since 1950, a setup that typically turns the southern tier wetter as winter arrives.

Why the tail of the season still matters

For property owners, insurers, and risk managers, late-season fires are rarely the biggest of the year, but they are often the closest to town. The next two weeks pair dry fuels on the Sierra Front, the southern Plains, and interior northern California with a returning ridge and the occasional north wind, which is exactly the setup that produced the Bull Fire.

National totals will barely move; individual neighborhoods can change in an afternoon. Property Guardian’s Overwatch follows new starts as they happen and maps the properties around them, so teams can see their exposure while a fire is still small.

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