January 13, 2026
By Mike Thayer, Senior Wildfire Consultant
In the wake of the Palisades Fire, there has been a lot of discussion, and a lot of media coverage, about the firefighting response. Some of it is fair. Much of it lacks critical context. If we want to learn from this fire and improve outcomes the next time, we need to be honest about what an urban conflagration is, what it demands, and what today’s systems can (and cannot) do under extreme conditions.
An Urban Conflagration Is a Different Problem Than a “Typical” Wildfire
There are realities about fires like the Palisades Fire that often don’t make it into public conversation:
- There is no standard training curriculum that teaches firefighters how to manage an urban conflagration. Firefighters train extensively, but when hundreds or thousands of structures are threatened at once, we’re dealing with a different operational environment.
- Water infrastructure systems were never designed for this. Decades-old systems are not designed for urban conflagration, and cannot handle hundreds or thousands of homes to be on fire at the same time.
- Aerial suppression has major limitations in extreme winds. The technology does not exist to consistently deliver water or retardant with accuracy when wind conditions are severe.
- Long-range spotting can outpace intervention quickly. Embers can ignite new fires over a wide geographic area faster than firefighting resources can reach and contain them.
Santa Ana Winds in the Santa Monica Mountains Create Predictable Outcomes
When a wildfire ignites in the Santa Monica Mountains west of the 405 freeway during intense Santa Ana winds, it will go to the ocean almost every time. Under those conditions, 50-100 foot flame lengths are common, and that level of fire behavior cannot be directly engaged by firefighters.
At that point, operations often shift to what is possible and safe:
- Point protection where conditions allow
- Following the fire front and taking action in the wake of the head fire
That’s not a lack of effort. It’s the reality of physics, wind, terrain, and fire behavior converging.
Success Stories Often Get Overlooked
Given how extreme and destructive this wind-driven event was, it’s easy to lose sight of what went right. After reading the recently released IBHS report, I saw examples of homes that were saved by firefighters under extreme conditions. I also saw accounts of homeowners being rescued and evacuated in near blackout visibility — work that deserves recognition.
Extraordinary efforts by aerial and ground resources also helped keep the fire out of Topanga Canyon proper and Mandeville Canyon, likely saving thousands of additional homes. And just as importantly, these operations were carried out with minimal firefighter injuries, despite the severity of the event.
A Critical Comparison: 1993 vs. Today
The 1993 Old Topanga Fire burned in much of the same terrain and produced 565 firefighter injuries and nine separate entrapments. We’ve made meaningful progress since then. Improved training, PPE, and communications contributed to only one confirmed firefighter injury during the Palisades Fire. That matters. It reflects how far firefighter safety and operational capability have advanced, even as the hazard itself becomes more extreme.
Can Outcomes Improve Next Time? Absolutely, but Everyone Has a Role
Yes, we can improve outcomes in the next conflagration event. But it will take the efforts of everyone, including homeowners.
Multiple studies from the January fires and other recent conflagrations indicate that vegetation pathways between homes are a primary contributor to fire spread. That’s why the push for a noncombustible 5-foot zone around the home (“Zone Zero”) is so important. It may seem drastic, but catastrophic events require catastrophic reform.
And while the Zone Zero code continues to get punted down the road, homeowners don’t need to wait for regulation. The time to act is now.
What Property Owners Can Do Right Now
If you’re looking for practical steps that help reduce risk:
- Create a noncombustible 5-foot zone around the home (remove mulch, stored items, wood piles, and other fuels)
- Install ember-resistant vents and seal vulnerable gaps where embers can enter
- Keep roofs and gutters clear; remove leaf litter and debris regularly
- Maintain defensible space and reduce vegetation pathways that allow fire to move structure-to-structure
If we want better outcomes, we need to match the scale of the hazard with the scale of our preparedness. Firefighting matters, but in urban conflagrations, community-level conditions and home hardening can determine whether a fire becomes a disaster.
